Odds 2017 NBA Championship: Which Teams Had the Best Chance to Win?

As I look back at the 2017 NBA championship odds, I can't help but feel that particular season represented one of the most unpredictable championship races in recent memory. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've learned that preseason odds often tell a fascinating story about team construction, player development, and organizational confidence. The 2016-2017 season was especially intriguing because we had the Warriors coming off their historic 73-win season, now enhanced by Kevin Durant's arrival, while the Cavaliers sought to defend their championship after that incredible comeback against Golden State. What made this season unique in my analysis was how the odds shifted dramatically throughout the year, reflecting both team performance and the complex dynamics of NBA roster construction.

I remember distinctly how the Warriors opened as overwhelming favorites, with most sportsbooks listing them around -200, which in my experience was one of the shortest preseason prices I'd ever seen for an NBA team. Having studied probability models for years, even I was skeptical about those numbers, despite recognizing Golden State's incredible talent. The Cavaliers typically sat around +350, making them the clear second choice, while teams like the Spurs and Celtics lingered in the +1200 to +1800 range. What fascinated me professionally was how these odds didn't just reflect team quality but also incorporated public betting patterns and media narratives. The Warriors were such a public team that books had to adjust their lines accordingly, creating what I believed were some genuine value opportunities on other contenders.

The reference to the TNT Tropang Giga's performance in that intense match against San Miguel Beer actually reminds me of how championship teams navigate critical moments. When I analyze championship odds, I always look for teams that demonstrate the ability to maintain composure during what I call "championship moments" - those pivotal stretches where games, and ultimately series, are won or lost. The Warriors particularly excelled in these situations throughout the 2017 playoffs, displaying a killer instinct that justified their favorite status. Their third-quarter explosions became legendary, much like how the Tropang Giga built that substantial 61-41 halftime lead before withstanding the furious fourth-quarter comeback. In championship basketball, building leads and protecting them requires both strategic excellence and mental toughness, qualities that separated the true contenders from the pretenders that season.

From my analytical perspective, the most undervalued team in the 2017 championship odds was probably the San Antonio Spurs. While they were generally listed around +1600, I believed Gregg Popovich's system and Kawhi Leonard's emergence as a genuine superstar created a much higher probability of success than the market suggested. Having developed my own rating system over the years, I had the Spurs' true championship probability closer to 12% rather than the implied 6% from those odds. The Rockets also presented interesting value later in the season, especially after Mike D'Antoni's offensive system began producing historic efficiency numbers. What many casual observers missed, in my view, was how James Harden's transformation into a point guard created matchup problems that could potentially trouble Golden State in a hypothetical playoff series.

The Warriors ultimately justified their favorite status by cruising through the playoffs with a historic 16-1 record, but I've always maintained that the odds never properly accounted for their potential vulnerability against certain stylistic matchups. Their lone loss to Cleveland in Game 4 of the Finals actually revealed something important about championship probability - sometimes the best team doesn't necessarily win every game, but over a seven-game series, their superiority typically prevails. This aligns with my broader philosophy about sports analytics: probability tells us what's likely to happen, but the beauty of sports lies in those moments when probability is defied. The Cavaliers' 2016 victory over the Warriors exemplified this perfectly, which is why I thought their 2017 price offered some appeal for bettors looking for a high-reward opportunity.

Reflecting on that season years later, I'm struck by how the championship odds both reflected and shaped the narrative around various teams. The Warriors' dominance created what I consider a pricing distortion throughout the league, where other legitimate contenders were undervalued simply because the gap between Golden State and everyone else appeared so substantial. In reality, basketball remains a game of variance, injuries, and hot streaks - factors that probability models struggle to fully capture. My experience has taught me that while analytics provide invaluable insights, they must be balanced with observational analysis and contextual understanding. The 2017 NBA championship odds told a story of expected dominance, but the actual playoffs revealed the nuanced reality of championship basketball, where favored teams must prove their mettle through consistency, adaptability, and resilience when facing determined challengers.